With respect to the Greek sovereign debt situation, two statements reported this morning stand out. First, Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Center for European Reform in London is quoted as saying: “The Greeks have been told to accept more of the medicine that has already failed to treat the disease.” The consequence of this is that Greece has already entered a “death trap.” (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/23/world/europe/23greece.html?_r=1&hp)
The other statement deals with how the European banks will deal with some of the cost of a second bailout of Greece: “The trick will be for the private sector to take losses on Greek bonds, without Greece being declared in default.” (http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304657804576401471860518598.html?mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_0&mg=reno-secaucus-wsj)
The problem: “If the banks are forced to accept losses, ratings companies likely will declare a default. Even if the banks act voluntarily, Greece could still be considered in default on some of its debts.”
For more on this issue you might check the column by Satyajit Das in the Financial Times, “Final arbiter in Greek saga is an untested private body.” Das is referring to something called the Determinations Committee, a group set up by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association. This body may be the one that determines whether of not Greece goes into default or not. (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/95e3131a-9bf9-11e0-bef9-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1Q6N7EfJG)
Marty Feldstein, the Harvard economist, considers the dilemma facing European leaders: “If Greece were the only insolvent European country, it would be best if its default occurred now…But Greece is not alone in its insolvency and a default by Athens could trigger defaults by Portugal, Ireland and possibly Spain. (http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2011/06/22/postponing-greeces-inevitable-default/)
Oh, oh! The “I” word!
So, Greece is insolvent. Portugal is insolvent. Ireland is insolvent. Possibly Spain is insolvent.
And the European leaders are forcing Greece (and these other countries) to just continue taking more of the same medicine.
But, we can’t have insolvency squared or insolvency cubed? Or, can we?
And the determination of whether or not a default takes place seems to depend upon a private organization that has never rated any debt before and must, it seems, determine what the definition of “is” is.
This seems like a scene out of an old Peter Sellers movie!
This is nothing more than a Ponzi scheme being enacted by a bunch of comedic characters. The Ponzi scheme: borrowing more and more money to pay the interest on the growing body of debt.
This is the “death trap” mentioned above.
My belief is that the financial markets will be the final arbiter of this picture. I believe that the “leaders” of Europe are creating a “risk-free” bet that many hedge funds and other investors with lots of money are waiting anxiously to exploit. Governments seem to have a penchant for creating such “risk-free” bets. Just ask George Soros.
Marty Feldstein has declared Greece insolvent. So have a lot of other people.
The financial markets will take care of this.
An aside about the situation in the United States: the Congressional Budget Office just released new projections for the federal budget. In the new projections, the interest paid on United States debt will increase from around 2 percent of Gross Domestic Product in 2011 to over 9 percent in the year 2035. And, this is with relatively benign projections on interest rate movements. (http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304657804576401592689113956.html?mod=ITP_pageone_1&mg=reno-secaucus-wsj)
Is this just another rendition of the “death trap”?