The economy is recovering. The areas that seem to show the most life are those sectors that have had sufficient debt relief so as to be able to move forward. The big banks are moving out in a very robust fashion, just how robust we will begin to hear this week. The auto industry seems to be moving ahead, albeit a little more slowly than the big banks. And, there are other areas that show signs of moving forward, the health industry and firms in the information technology industry.
The big cloud hanging over all of this is the debt that still is outstanding in many sectors of the economy. The problem with debt is that it just won’t go away. Regardless of any adjustments made to who owes what to whom, if there is debt outstanding, someone has to pay for it in some fashion.
The big banks were saved, but who picked up the tab for the bailout? The taxpayer did, or, at least the taxpayer has footed the bill pending a potential Obama tax on the banks to “recover” some of the bailout monies.
Who saved the auto industry and subsequently holds the IOU for the rescue? A large part of the financial restructuring came at the expense of those that had provided credit or equity funds to the car companies. And, the federal government also paid a share.
If homeowners got relief from their mortgage and consumer debt, who would pay the bill? Shareholders of the bank, holders of mortgage-backed securities, and the federal government. (You might check out this little piece by Peter Eavis in today’s Wall Street Journal: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052748704081704574652660161217386.html#mod=todays_us_money_and_investing.)
And, what about the debt that is related to commercial real estate lending? Shareholders of banks, holders of commercial mortgage vehicles, and the federal government.
Then we move to the financial problems of the states. Recent information points to the fact that 36 states in the United States are having financial problems and these could lead to deficits in the state budgets of around $350 billion this year and next. Where is the money going to come to pay for these shortfalls? States have already attempted to sell off properties, outsource functions to the private sector, and even turn some things over to the federal government.
Part of the problem here is that the tax base in most states has collapsed as unemployment and under-employment have risen, as property values have fallen, and as business earnings have collapsed. Rating agencies have begun to lower credit ratings on some states. The best guess is that ratings will drop on many other states before the year is over.
And, what about local and municipal governments? Same problems.
And, then, what about the federal government? Without totaling up the bill for the problems mentioned above, let alone the escalation of wars here and there all over the world, health care reform, and some kind of energy bill, many expect federal deficits over the next ten years to total $15 to $18 trillion!
Who is going to purchase all or almost all of this debt? China?
What I find scary is that our “friends” are voicing concern in different ways. For example, the Financial Times this morning carries the opinion piece of Gideon Rachman titled “Bankruptcy Could Be Good for America”: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a8486284-fee9-11de-a677-00144feab49a.html. The point Rachman makes is that the Brics, Brazil, Russia, India, and China all went through economic reform before they “broke out” into their current ascendency. Brazil’s reform came in the 1990s, Russia defaulted in the late 1990s, India embraced economic reform in 1991, and China moved to a new mindset in the early 1990s. “Those much discussed emerging powers, the Brics, all needed a fiscal crisis to set them on the road to economic reform and national resurgence. America may one day be lucky enough to experience its very own national fiscal crisis.”
Even if we print money to pay for the federal debt, as the Federal Reserve has done over the last year or so, (the monetary base rose 23% from December 2008 to December 2009, and rose by 101% over the previous 12 months) someone, somewhere will pay this debt in terms of a reduction in purchasing power.
Need I mention that since January 1961 the purchasing power of one dollar has dropped to roughly $0.15. Inflating the United States government out of its debts has a long, post-World War II history.
Might this process of “printing money” continue?
Seems like a lot of people believe that it will. For one there is the problem of rising long term interest rates. More and more worry is being expressed about the expected increases. Why? Well most analysts believe that the Federal Reserve has helped to keep long term interest rates lower than they would have been in order to provide liquidity to the financial markets and to support the mortgage market. On January 6, 2010, the Fed held on their balance sheet $777 billion in U. S. Treasury securities, $160 billion in Federal Agency debt securities, and $909 billion in Mortgage-backed securities.
This totals $1.846 trillion in securities held by the central bank! The concern is that in the last week of August, 2008, the Fed had provided only $741 billion in funds to the banking system through some kind of market or auction based transaction.
How much affect these purchases have had on keeping long term interest rates lower than they would have been is currently being debated. What is not in question is that, sooner or later, interest rates are going to begin to rise, first because the Fed’s artificial support will be removed, but rates will rise as the economy begins to improve, further pressure will be put on rates as issuers of bonds race to place debt before the rise takes place (See “Rate Rise Fears Spark Rush to Issue Bonds: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6f46f226-fef2-11de-a677-00144feab49a.html), and as inflationary expectations are incorporated into bond yields.
How fast will the Fed allow interest rates to rise because rising interest rates will slow down economic recovery. Also, the Fed has created another problem by keeping short term interest rates so low. Not only have these low rates created arbitrage possibilities for domestic investment, borrow short term money in the 35 to 65 basis point range and invest in 10-year government bonds at 3.50% to 3.80% but also for the international carry trade. It is argued that the Fed cannot allow rates to go up too fast or big financial institutions and other investors will get trapped in losses that will not help the economic recovery.
The point of all this discussion is that any “exit” strategy that the Fed is planning to reduce the securities held on its balance sheet from current levels to even a level of $1.0 trillion, let alone the $741 billion mentioned above, is already in jeopardy. And, many are arguing that in the face of such overwhelming future deficits, the Fed will be forced to print even more money than it has over the last 17 months.
The problem with debt is that debt, once issued, really does not go away. Someone has to pay for it!
Showing posts with label auto industry. Show all posts
Showing posts with label auto industry. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Excess Capacity and the Slow Economic Recovery
Ben Bernanke spoke in New York yesterday and, depending upon which paper you read this morning, he basically said one of two things. First, he said that the Fed was interested in a strong dollar and would continue to keep the value of the dollar in mind in deliberations concerning monetary policy.
Chuckle, chuckle.
Second, Bernanke said that the pain in the labor market was going to last for a long time and that we shouldn’t expect the unemployment rate to fall anytime soon.
That is, don’t expect interest rates to begin to rise in the near future.
Remember, the number one policy goal of the Federal Reserve (and the federal government) is full employment and don’t you forget it. Put inflation, commodity prices, and the value of the United States dollar on the back burner.
So much for an independent Fed!
But, we knew that.
The problem with the economic recovery and unemployment is captured by an article in the Wall Street Journal, “Auto Industry Has Room to Shrink Further,” (see http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125832250680149395.html?mg=com-wsj.) Although the article focuses upon the auto industry, the situation that is described can be extended to many other major (and minor) industries throughout the world.
“Over the past two years, the global auto industry has endured one of the worst downturns in its century-plus history. Auto makers around the world have consolidated, restructured and slimmed down—and yet they still have too much of just about everything, especially too many brands and too many plants.”
“According to CSM Worldwide, the auto industry has enough capacity to make 85.9 million cars and light trucks a year—about 30 million more than it is on track to sell this year, the equivalent of more than 120 assembly plants.”
Furthermore, an auto analyst is quoted as saying, “government intervention to save auto-related jobs has forestalled the inevitable—broad and deep restructuring that would shut down unneeded plants and close loss-making enterprises. Not as much capacity has come out that should have.”
This is just talking about the auto industry. But, it is true of industry in general. The United States and the global economy have become leaner due to the current contraction: still, much excess capacity remains.
Even though capacity utilization for all industry is up in the United States (note that capacity utilization for manufacturing in October did not change from September), giving further indication that the recession is over, the problem of too much capacity lingers. As I have mentioned many times before, every economic recovery since the 1960s has seen a pickup in capacity utilization as economic growth increased, but the peak reached in each cycle was no higher, and was generally lower, than the peak reached in the previous cycle.
That is, capacity utilization rose during the expansion phase of each economic cycle since the 1960s but the trend in the United States was for more and more plant and equipment to remain idle.
In addition, this contributed to the under-utilization of labor as is evidenced by the rising trend in those of the population that are labeled underemployed .
Also, as the federal government, and the independent Federal Reserve System, tried to pump up the economy so that fuller employment could be achieved, the pressure was always on for inflation to rise. Since January 1961, the purchasing power of the dollar has fallen by about 85%. This is not a coincidence!
Furthermore, these policy efforts just put people back to work in the jobs they had been in and reduced the incentive for companies to innovate and change moderating productivity growth.
The performance of industrial production in the United States carries with it the same story. (Industrial production is up in October, but at an anemic 0.1% rate.) The growth rate of industrial production rises and falls through the swings in the economic cycle, but each rebound does not bring with it the same expansion as was achieved in previous cycles. This is just another indication that although recovery takes place, the overall trend in the productive utilization of resources in the United States continues to wane.
This fundamental weakness resource utilization is resulting in changing attitudes throughout the world. David Brooks writes in the New York Times about the underlying optimism that seems to be present in China these days, an optimism that used to be present in the United States. Simon Shama writes in the Financial Times about how China is now “wagging its finger at the United States about it wayward monetary and fiscal policies, as yet, still unaccustomed “to being the strong party in the relationship.” Clive Crook, also in the Financial Times, writes about the looming political battle in the United States concerning the “big questions” that voters have to answer “about the entitlements they demand and the taxes they are willing to pay.”
The United States is strong and will continue to stay strong. But, its relative position is changing. And, the way its leaders go about attempting to resolve problems is missing the point.
The United States economy is recovering. But, unless policy prescriptions change, there will continue to be an under-utilization of capacity, a weakness to productivity growth, a bias towards inflation, further declines in the United States dollar, and the threat of protectionism.
It is said that people and a nation do not change their habits until there is a real crisis. Right now it looks as if we have wasted a pretty significant financial crisis in returning to our old ways and old policy prescriptions and will just have to be content with an economy that produces mediocre results. No one seems anxious to change how we attack our problems.
Chuckle, chuckle.
Second, Bernanke said that the pain in the labor market was going to last for a long time and that we shouldn’t expect the unemployment rate to fall anytime soon.
That is, don’t expect interest rates to begin to rise in the near future.
Remember, the number one policy goal of the Federal Reserve (and the federal government) is full employment and don’t you forget it. Put inflation, commodity prices, and the value of the United States dollar on the back burner.
So much for an independent Fed!
But, we knew that.
The problem with the economic recovery and unemployment is captured by an article in the Wall Street Journal, “Auto Industry Has Room to Shrink Further,” (see http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125832250680149395.html?mg=com-wsj.) Although the article focuses upon the auto industry, the situation that is described can be extended to many other major (and minor) industries throughout the world.
“Over the past two years, the global auto industry has endured one of the worst downturns in its century-plus history. Auto makers around the world have consolidated, restructured and slimmed down—and yet they still have too much of just about everything, especially too many brands and too many plants.”
“According to CSM Worldwide, the auto industry has enough capacity to make 85.9 million cars and light trucks a year—about 30 million more than it is on track to sell this year, the equivalent of more than 120 assembly plants.”
Furthermore, an auto analyst is quoted as saying, “government intervention to save auto-related jobs has forestalled the inevitable—broad and deep restructuring that would shut down unneeded plants and close loss-making enterprises. Not as much capacity has come out that should have.”
This is just talking about the auto industry. But, it is true of industry in general. The United States and the global economy have become leaner due to the current contraction: still, much excess capacity remains.
Even though capacity utilization for all industry is up in the United States (note that capacity utilization for manufacturing in October did not change from September), giving further indication that the recession is over, the problem of too much capacity lingers. As I have mentioned many times before, every economic recovery since the 1960s has seen a pickup in capacity utilization as economic growth increased, but the peak reached in each cycle was no higher, and was generally lower, than the peak reached in the previous cycle.
That is, capacity utilization rose during the expansion phase of each economic cycle since the 1960s but the trend in the United States was for more and more plant and equipment to remain idle.
In addition, this contributed to the under-utilization of labor as is evidenced by the rising trend in those of the population that are labeled underemployed .
Also, as the federal government, and the independent Federal Reserve System, tried to pump up the economy so that fuller employment could be achieved, the pressure was always on for inflation to rise. Since January 1961, the purchasing power of the dollar has fallen by about 85%. This is not a coincidence!
Furthermore, these policy efforts just put people back to work in the jobs they had been in and reduced the incentive for companies to innovate and change moderating productivity growth.
The performance of industrial production in the United States carries with it the same story. (Industrial production is up in October, but at an anemic 0.1% rate.) The growth rate of industrial production rises and falls through the swings in the economic cycle, but each rebound does not bring with it the same expansion as was achieved in previous cycles. This is just another indication that although recovery takes place, the overall trend in the productive utilization of resources in the United States continues to wane.
This fundamental weakness resource utilization is resulting in changing attitudes throughout the world. David Brooks writes in the New York Times about the underlying optimism that seems to be present in China these days, an optimism that used to be present in the United States. Simon Shama writes in the Financial Times about how China is now “wagging its finger at the United States about it wayward monetary and fiscal policies, as yet, still unaccustomed “to being the strong party in the relationship.” Clive Crook, also in the Financial Times, writes about the looming political battle in the United States concerning the “big questions” that voters have to answer “about the entitlements they demand and the taxes they are willing to pay.”
The United States is strong and will continue to stay strong. But, its relative position is changing. And, the way its leaders go about attempting to resolve problems is missing the point.
The United States economy is recovering. But, unless policy prescriptions change, there will continue to be an under-utilization of capacity, a weakness to productivity growth, a bias towards inflation, further declines in the United States dollar, and the threat of protectionism.
It is said that people and a nation do not change their habits until there is a real crisis. Right now it looks as if we have wasted a pretty significant financial crisis in returning to our old ways and old policy prescriptions and will just have to be content with an economy that produces mediocre results. No one seems anxious to change how we attack our problems.
Sunday, March 29, 2009
The Fate of Rick Wagoner
Rick Wagoner, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of General Motors, will resign as a part of the agreement with the federal government in which the company will receive additional federal aid. General Motors is a turnaround situation; it is not a restructuring exercise. The odds are against a company pulling off a turnaround with the same people that led them into the situation they now face.
Some people argue that the problem is the bad economy, something that the executives are not responsible for and therefore should be allowed to continue in their positions. This, to me, is like saying that executives in financial institutions are not responsible for the collapse in the financial market that exposed to the world the increased risk they imposed upon their companies or the large increases in leverage that accompanied their use of more exotic financial instruments.
When you make bad decisions, a bad economy will exacerbate the results that come from these choices. But, one cannot just place all the blame on the bad economy.
This analysis puts us back into a discussion about our understanding of exactly what it is that we are now facing in the financial markets and the economy. One way to distinguish the two views that seem to be the predominant ones now in vogue concerning our current situation is between those that believe the main problem relating to financial assets is the liquidity of these assets.
In this argument, people insist that banks and other financial institutions are caught in a trap where the markets for many of their assets are so illiquid that these organizations are unable to price the assets and then, possibly sell them. This seems to be the assumption behind the recently presented investment program, the P-PIP, that was announced by the Treasury last week.
The alternative view is that many financial institutions are insolvent and that what is really needed is a recapitalization of those organizations that still have a future while those that are not capable of being salvaged should be closed. Those that take this approach contend that this problem will not go away and will have to be addressed sooner or later. They also argue that dealing with it sooner will speed on a recovery and will also cost the taxpayer less in the longer run. (See my post http://seekingalpha.com/article/127639-public-private-investment-program-liquidity-or-solvency.)
The other area of concern is the status of many of the firms that find themselves in trouble. One group of analysts believes that the problem is one of a bad economy and a bad financial market and that all the companies need to do is restructure their current operations. This can be done, they argue, with the existing management and with just “tweaking” the existing business model.
Yet, here we are with General Motors. Over 20,000 employees were given the option of taking a buyout of their employment contracts. A total of about 7,500 took the buyout, but this was a disappointing result. Several of the product lines are going to be discontinued and/or sold off to bailouts in other nations. Contracts with labor unions regarding working arrangements and conditions must be massively changed. And, a substantial number of the bondholders must convert their bond holdings into equity. This doesn’t even touch the fact that the auto companies are substantially behind the curve in terms of real innovations and preparations for future technologies and products.
Given these factors that need to be addressed and resolved, I believe that one can only call this a turnaround situation, a condition in which new eyes and ears must be applied. To me there is little hope that the executives that got the company into this position are the executives that will bring these companies into the 21st century let alone into the 1980s.
This judgment applies not only to the automobile industry: it also applies to banks and other financial institutions, as well as many manufacturing organizations and other companies that require major changes in their business models. (See my post http://seekingalpha.com/article/127625-let-go-the-experts-who-have-learned-to-fail.)
This country (and the world) is facing a series of serious structural dislocations. The problems are not ones of liquidity or keeping on, keeping on. Lobbying to maintain the status quo will not give us much hope for the future. Inflating our way out of the bad debt or band-aiding inadequate business models will only postpone what needs to be done.
The arrogance that Rick Wagoner exhibited in his first appearance in front of Congress probably doomed him to this result. The behavior of other executives from both the financial and non-financial sectors has not endeared them to either the people of the country or to their representatives in Congress. This will probably not help the executives in the long run. Sometimes a little humility is a good thing!
Bankruptcy is another option for many firms. One could argue that taking this path would probably be an efficient way to get companies into the turnaround mode although it would not include government money as a part of the process. It would keep government officials out of the turnaround process and avoid relationships that are uncomfortable for the new managements that will be leading the companies out of the bankruptcy.
This in not a normal, relatively mild recession that will be ended through the injection of liquidity into the monetary system. The economy is facing a management problem and a debt problem that must be worked through. It is not clear that this is fully understood by those attempting to turn the economy around.
Some people argue that the problem is the bad economy, something that the executives are not responsible for and therefore should be allowed to continue in their positions. This, to me, is like saying that executives in financial institutions are not responsible for the collapse in the financial market that exposed to the world the increased risk they imposed upon their companies or the large increases in leverage that accompanied their use of more exotic financial instruments.
When you make bad decisions, a bad economy will exacerbate the results that come from these choices. But, one cannot just place all the blame on the bad economy.
This analysis puts us back into a discussion about our understanding of exactly what it is that we are now facing in the financial markets and the economy. One way to distinguish the two views that seem to be the predominant ones now in vogue concerning our current situation is between those that believe the main problem relating to financial assets is the liquidity of these assets.
In this argument, people insist that banks and other financial institutions are caught in a trap where the markets for many of their assets are so illiquid that these organizations are unable to price the assets and then, possibly sell them. This seems to be the assumption behind the recently presented investment program, the P-PIP, that was announced by the Treasury last week.
The alternative view is that many financial institutions are insolvent and that what is really needed is a recapitalization of those organizations that still have a future while those that are not capable of being salvaged should be closed. Those that take this approach contend that this problem will not go away and will have to be addressed sooner or later. They also argue that dealing with it sooner will speed on a recovery and will also cost the taxpayer less in the longer run. (See my post http://seekingalpha.com/article/127639-public-private-investment-program-liquidity-or-solvency.)
The other area of concern is the status of many of the firms that find themselves in trouble. One group of analysts believes that the problem is one of a bad economy and a bad financial market and that all the companies need to do is restructure their current operations. This can be done, they argue, with the existing management and with just “tweaking” the existing business model.
Yet, here we are with General Motors. Over 20,000 employees were given the option of taking a buyout of their employment contracts. A total of about 7,500 took the buyout, but this was a disappointing result. Several of the product lines are going to be discontinued and/or sold off to bailouts in other nations. Contracts with labor unions regarding working arrangements and conditions must be massively changed. And, a substantial number of the bondholders must convert their bond holdings into equity. This doesn’t even touch the fact that the auto companies are substantially behind the curve in terms of real innovations and preparations for future technologies and products.
Given these factors that need to be addressed and resolved, I believe that one can only call this a turnaround situation, a condition in which new eyes and ears must be applied. To me there is little hope that the executives that got the company into this position are the executives that will bring these companies into the 21st century let alone into the 1980s.
This judgment applies not only to the automobile industry: it also applies to banks and other financial institutions, as well as many manufacturing organizations and other companies that require major changes in their business models. (See my post http://seekingalpha.com/article/127625-let-go-the-experts-who-have-learned-to-fail.)
This country (and the world) is facing a series of serious structural dislocations. The problems are not ones of liquidity or keeping on, keeping on. Lobbying to maintain the status quo will not give us much hope for the future. Inflating our way out of the bad debt or band-aiding inadequate business models will only postpone what needs to be done.
The arrogance that Rick Wagoner exhibited in his first appearance in front of Congress probably doomed him to this result. The behavior of other executives from both the financial and non-financial sectors has not endeared them to either the people of the country or to their representatives in Congress. This will probably not help the executives in the long run. Sometimes a little humility is a good thing!
Bankruptcy is another option for many firms. One could argue that taking this path would probably be an efficient way to get companies into the turnaround mode although it would not include government money as a part of the process. It would keep government officials out of the turnaround process and avoid relationships that are uncomfortable for the new managements that will be leading the companies out of the bankruptcy.
This in not a normal, relatively mild recession that will be ended through the injection of liquidity into the monetary system. The economy is facing a management problem and a debt problem that must be worked through. It is not clear that this is fully understood by those attempting to turn the economy around.
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
This Issue Is Debt! Too Much of It!
Going forward…the primary issue the world is going to have to face is debt…lots and lots of debt. Debt is clogging the blood vessels of the world financial system!
And the proposal to get us out of this dilemma?
Create even more debt!
If the problem is too much debt then the economy has to go through the pain of working this debt off…and this is called a debt/deflation. As people and companies and government reduce the amount of debt on their balance sheets they withdraw from the spending stream…and save…exactly what people and companies and governments are doing at the present time. But, removing spending from the spending stream reduces the demand for goods and services, causes firms to cut people from their employee rolls…and creates a downward spiral in economic activity. The economy engages in cumulative behavior and gets deeper and deeper into a hole.
This is what the people and the government want to avoid…if possible.
The Obama stimulus proposal is a way to get us out of the current economic crisis.
(There is another way that I will discuss below.) Basically, it is an attempt to inflate our way out of all the debt that exists. The Federal Reserve is doing its part in trying to pump up the amount of cash that exists within the system. But, creating money in this way takes time for the inflation to work its way through the system because it must go through banks and other financial organizations. And, this system, right now, seems to be functioning at a very low level.
Keynes saw this problem in the 1930s and proposed a way of getting around the banking and financial systems…create massive amounts of government expenditures and put this spending directly in the economic system…financing the deficits with government debt. Then, as the economic system starts to turnaround and pick up steam…the banking and financial system will pick up some steam and provide the “kicker” to create the inflationary environment needed to reduce the real value of the debt that had been built up…including the debt the government deficit spending just added to the pile.
Therefore, the first way to reduce the amount of debt that is outstanding in the economy is to create more debt so as to un-clog the banking and financial system…create an inflationary environment…and watch the “real value” of the debt decline.
This is a long term process and has several problems to face along the way. One of these is the question of how much spending should the government undertake? The issue here is about what the “multiplier” of government spending really is. I treated this in a post on January 26, 2009, titled “What will be the impact of Obama’s stimulus plan, http://seekingalpha.com/article/116414-what-will-be-the-impact-of-obama-s-stimulus-plan. Another question has to do with the process of enacting the stimulus plan into law. This I treated in a post on February 2, 2009, titled “the Obama Stimulus plan: Why I’m Concerned”, http://seekingalpha.com/article/117878-the-obama-stimulus-plan-why-i-m-concerned.
However, the ultimate issue relates to the amount of debt that is outstanding…in the United States…and in the world. If the amount of debt HAS to be reduced…and it must be reduced in order to get the economy functioning again…then, following this approach, inflation must take place to reduce the real value of the debt. The danger with this plan is that if inflation is not cut off at some time in the future, the incentives in the economy will be to return to a “go-right-on” and “business-as-usual” approach to living. That is…we will be right back where we were around the middle of this decade, where leverage was good and more leverage was even better, especially within an inflationary environment where things need to be kept “pumped up”! If this happens, we will still be addicted and still have the “monkey on our backs.”
Another way to reduce the amount of debt outstanding in the economy is to basically “write down” or “re-write” the debt and not create any more through an enormous fiscal stimulus plan like that proposed by the Obama administration. This would involve a massive restructuring of existing business balance sheets…both financial institutions as well as non-financial institutions. Insolvent institutions…including the auto companies…need to be recognized as such. In effect, existing shareholders in these companies have lost their investment…so much for good governance and oversight. Bondholders will have to accept an exchange…taking “new” debt at, say, 75% or 50% of the current face value…or preferred shares for the debt they hold…or taking an equity position in the company…maybe even warrants.
These exchanges would have to be negotiated…but the bondholders would have to understand that, as things now stand, the companies are insolvent and they could get nothing if the restructuring does not take place. Plus, the companies or the bondholders…or the public…really does not want the government to take over these institutions. We do not want state-run companies…financial or non-financial…because the fate of the nation would be much worse with a nationalization of industry than it would with an imposed “re-structuring” of the balance sheets of these businesses…financial and non-financial.
In terms of the consumer…a similar thing would have to take place. The major concern has been related to the housing sector and mortgages. But, we are now seeing a massive wave approaching of defaults on credit cards, car loans, and other types of debt that the consumer has taken on. Similar to the re-structuring of the business sector, the balance sheets of consumers must be re-structured. How we do this cannot really be discussed in this short post, but the idea would be that organizations that have extended credit to the consumer sector will have to take a haircut on the amount of debt that is owed by each consumer and the terms of repayment will have to be restructured in order to make the probability of repayment of the debt realistic. Again, this re-structuring would have to be negotiated…but we are talking here about much lower costs than would accumulate if there were more foreclosures and bankruptcies…more lawyers’ fees…and more costs all the way around. And, this could be done in a much shorter period of time than if all these bad assets had to be “worked out”.
I have given two extreme solutions to the problem of the debt overhang. The fundamental crisis is connected with the fact that there is too much debt in the system. For the system to work this dislocation out we would have to go through a period of debt-deflation. The two extremes presented here are, first, the Keynesian approach which is to inflate the economy and reduce the real value of the debt, or, second, to impose a debt-restructuring on the economy which would allow for a negotiated reduction in the debt loads of all economic units in the system.
People will really not be happy with either of these extreme solutions…or, for that matter…any combination of the efforts. But, once one loses their discipline, as the United States and the world did in the 2000s…there are no good solutions available to get out of the hole that has been dug. All people can do is to “take their medicine” and vow not to let such a situation ever occur again. However, looking back at history, one cannot be very confident that we will maintain our discipline once we get over the crisis.
I would like to make just one more suggestion. There is only one real change I would like to see to the regulatory structure…for both financial and non-financial firms…and that is the imposition of almost complete openness and transparency of the business and financial records of companies. Whatever a company does…it should be open to its owners…and to anyone else that might be interested.
And the proposal to get us out of this dilemma?
Create even more debt!
If the problem is too much debt then the economy has to go through the pain of working this debt off…and this is called a debt/deflation. As people and companies and government reduce the amount of debt on their balance sheets they withdraw from the spending stream…and save…exactly what people and companies and governments are doing at the present time. But, removing spending from the spending stream reduces the demand for goods and services, causes firms to cut people from their employee rolls…and creates a downward spiral in economic activity. The economy engages in cumulative behavior and gets deeper and deeper into a hole.
This is what the people and the government want to avoid…if possible.
The Obama stimulus proposal is a way to get us out of the current economic crisis.
(There is another way that I will discuss below.) Basically, it is an attempt to inflate our way out of all the debt that exists. The Federal Reserve is doing its part in trying to pump up the amount of cash that exists within the system. But, creating money in this way takes time for the inflation to work its way through the system because it must go through banks and other financial organizations. And, this system, right now, seems to be functioning at a very low level.
Keynes saw this problem in the 1930s and proposed a way of getting around the banking and financial systems…create massive amounts of government expenditures and put this spending directly in the economic system…financing the deficits with government debt. Then, as the economic system starts to turnaround and pick up steam…the banking and financial system will pick up some steam and provide the “kicker” to create the inflationary environment needed to reduce the real value of the debt that had been built up…including the debt the government deficit spending just added to the pile.
Therefore, the first way to reduce the amount of debt that is outstanding in the economy is to create more debt so as to un-clog the banking and financial system…create an inflationary environment…and watch the “real value” of the debt decline.
This is a long term process and has several problems to face along the way. One of these is the question of how much spending should the government undertake? The issue here is about what the “multiplier” of government spending really is. I treated this in a post on January 26, 2009, titled “What will be the impact of Obama’s stimulus plan, http://seekingalpha.com/article/116414-what-will-be-the-impact-of-obama-s-stimulus-plan. Another question has to do with the process of enacting the stimulus plan into law. This I treated in a post on February 2, 2009, titled “the Obama Stimulus plan: Why I’m Concerned”, http://seekingalpha.com/article/117878-the-obama-stimulus-plan-why-i-m-concerned.
However, the ultimate issue relates to the amount of debt that is outstanding…in the United States…and in the world. If the amount of debt HAS to be reduced…and it must be reduced in order to get the economy functioning again…then, following this approach, inflation must take place to reduce the real value of the debt. The danger with this plan is that if inflation is not cut off at some time in the future, the incentives in the economy will be to return to a “go-right-on” and “business-as-usual” approach to living. That is…we will be right back where we were around the middle of this decade, where leverage was good and more leverage was even better, especially within an inflationary environment where things need to be kept “pumped up”! If this happens, we will still be addicted and still have the “monkey on our backs.”
Another way to reduce the amount of debt outstanding in the economy is to basically “write down” or “re-write” the debt and not create any more through an enormous fiscal stimulus plan like that proposed by the Obama administration. This would involve a massive restructuring of existing business balance sheets…both financial institutions as well as non-financial institutions. Insolvent institutions…including the auto companies…need to be recognized as such. In effect, existing shareholders in these companies have lost their investment…so much for good governance and oversight. Bondholders will have to accept an exchange…taking “new” debt at, say, 75% or 50% of the current face value…or preferred shares for the debt they hold…or taking an equity position in the company…maybe even warrants.
These exchanges would have to be negotiated…but the bondholders would have to understand that, as things now stand, the companies are insolvent and they could get nothing if the restructuring does not take place. Plus, the companies or the bondholders…or the public…really does not want the government to take over these institutions. We do not want state-run companies…financial or non-financial…because the fate of the nation would be much worse with a nationalization of industry than it would with an imposed “re-structuring” of the balance sheets of these businesses…financial and non-financial.
In terms of the consumer…a similar thing would have to take place. The major concern has been related to the housing sector and mortgages. But, we are now seeing a massive wave approaching of defaults on credit cards, car loans, and other types of debt that the consumer has taken on. Similar to the re-structuring of the business sector, the balance sheets of consumers must be re-structured. How we do this cannot really be discussed in this short post, but the idea would be that organizations that have extended credit to the consumer sector will have to take a haircut on the amount of debt that is owed by each consumer and the terms of repayment will have to be restructured in order to make the probability of repayment of the debt realistic. Again, this re-structuring would have to be negotiated…but we are talking here about much lower costs than would accumulate if there were more foreclosures and bankruptcies…more lawyers’ fees…and more costs all the way around. And, this could be done in a much shorter period of time than if all these bad assets had to be “worked out”.
I have given two extreme solutions to the problem of the debt overhang. The fundamental crisis is connected with the fact that there is too much debt in the system. For the system to work this dislocation out we would have to go through a period of debt-deflation. The two extremes presented here are, first, the Keynesian approach which is to inflate the economy and reduce the real value of the debt, or, second, to impose a debt-restructuring on the economy which would allow for a negotiated reduction in the debt loads of all economic units in the system.
People will really not be happy with either of these extreme solutions…or, for that matter…any combination of the efforts. But, once one loses their discipline, as the United States and the world did in the 2000s…there are no good solutions available to get out of the hole that has been dug. All people can do is to “take their medicine” and vow not to let such a situation ever occur again. However, looking back at history, one cannot be very confident that we will maintain our discipline once we get over the crisis.
I would like to make just one more suggestion. There is only one real change I would like to see to the regulatory structure…for both financial and non-financial firms…and that is the imposition of almost complete openness and transparency of the business and financial records of companies. Whatever a company does…it should be open to its owners…and to anyone else that might be interested.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Trying to Understand the Recession
It is official now…the United States has been in recession since December 2007! Right now the current recession is the third longest recession since World War II and most economists believe that this recession will at least tie the other two recessions in terms of duration…a period of 16 months.
Among the major factors behind such a belief is that housing prices are still declining, housing sales are still falling, layoffs have just started to takeoff and financial institutions are still reluctant to lend…even if people and companies are willing to borrow. Some feel that the real recession is just starting to hit.
Growth-wise, real GDP rose, year-over-year, at a 0.7% rate in the third quarter of 2008, down from 2.8% in the third quarter of 2007 and 2.3% in the fourth quarter of that year. Real GDP declined in the third quarter of 2008 from the second quarter of 2008 and is expected to decline once again going from the third quarter to the fourth quarter.
The extent of this recession has even got some people talking about deflation!
Now that is something! It is something because the year-over-year rate of change in the Implicit Price Deflator of GPD, although it drops when there is a recession, has only become negative once since World War II and that was in the 1948-49 recession. (See chart from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/fredgraph?chart_type=line&s[1][id]=GNPDEF&s[1][transformation]=pc1.) Over the past seven quarters the Implicit GDP Price Deflator has averaged a 2.5% year-over-year rate of increase and increased by 2.6% in the third quarter of 2008 over the third quarter of 2007.
It is important to talk about what is happening to prices at the same time one is talking about what is happening to economic activity because that gives us a clue as to what factors are dominating economic activity. If both prices and output move in the same direction then one can say that demand factors are dominating the market. If prices and output move in opposite directions then one can say that supply factors are dominating the market. To understand what is happening in the economy, one must get some feel for which side of a market is dominating.
As the rate of growth of the economy has dropped from the rate of expansion that took place in the four quarters ending in the third quarter of 2007 (2.8%) to the four quarters ending in the third quarter of 2008 (0.7%), the rate of inflation for the same periods remained roughly constant or has declined modestly. To get such a result the drop in the demand for goods and services would have had to been roughly matched by the decline in the supply of goods and services over this time period. That is, neither side of the market strongly dominated the behavior of the economy over the past year or so.
As I have written in several posts over the past year, supply factors seem to be just as important as, or even more important than, demand factors in the current slowdown. That is, an adjustment is taking place on the supply side of the economy that must be reckoned with if we are to fully understand what is going on in the economy and respond to the situation as effectively as possible.
A possible reason for the shift in supply is that transitions are taking place in the economy or need to take place in the economy and this is impacting cost structures and organizational patterns in a way that is altering how people do business. For example, the increase in the cost of oil during the 2007-2008 period may have caused the transportation and energy industries to begin adjusting to a new world of alternative products and services that rely less on fossil-based resources. The subsequent reduction in the cost of a barrel of oil may have little impact on decisions because of the ‘price shock’ that people absorbed through the summer of 2008. The problems in the automotive industry are just one consequence of this. And, we are seeing a lot more adjustments coming in different segments of the transportation area that are not getting such a high profile. Also, new efforts to build ‘green’ industries may result from this.
Another transition is occurring in the financial industry where thousands of people are being laid off due to the downsizing that has resulted from the collapse of the financial markets. Financial institutions, I believe, are going to go through a substantial restructuring that will be based on information technology. In the past thirty years, the financial industry has shown how it can use the computer to design financial products. Now, along with the call to restructure the regulation of financial institutions, the financial industry is going to have to use the emerging information technology to control risk and enhance the openness and transparency of the industry. In moving in this direction the financial industry will become a real leader in the creation of information markets on which the rest of the economy will model itself.
Information technology continues to transform itself and in so doing will continue to create opportunities for other industries to transform themselves. The spread of information is going to accelerate with search being an integral part of this expansion along with greater and greater connectivity between users throughout the world. Computer networks will more and more become decentralized rather than centralized.
Another area where substantial transitions are taking place is in the area of State and Local governments. The model that has been used in this arena developed after World War II and is in need of a vast overhaul. In all likelihood, the current financial difficulties are going to result in these governments modernizing their function and structure while at the same time they help rebuild the infrastructure.
These are just a few of the major transitions that are taking place in the economy right now and that predominantly affect the supply side of the economy rather than the demand side. In all the efforts to “get the economy going again” we must not restrict or prevent these changes. That is, the government programs that are designed to stimulate the economy must not “lock us into” the old way of doing things. A bailout of the auto industry that keeps things “as they are” will not be helpful in the longer run.
It could be that the economy of the United States, and the world, is now going through a major restructuring, a restructuring that seems to occur every 60-80 years or so. In a sense, we are going from one age into another. One could say that the United States went through another major restructuring in the 1930s when the country was transitioning from an economy based predominantly upon agriculture to one that was based predominantly upon manufacturing. Maybe this is the time of transition from manufacturing to (you insert your term for it). Maybe the world of the ‘manufacturer’, and all that supports it, has significantly passed its peak and government props can no longer sustain it.
Two things can be drawn from this. First, government programs that just rely on stimulating demand will not prove to be very effective. The transitions must take place. They will take place relatively rapidly or they will take place at a much slower pace if the government supports the status quo. We…the government…must be careful here.
Let me state this again…the adjustments are going to take place…whether or not the government slows them down!
Second, these areas of transition are going to create major new opportunities for investment to those that are lucky enough…or wise enough…to choose the right companies. Referring to the 1930s once again, one can reference many investments that provided exceptional returns to those that sought them out and committed to them during the period in which the economy was adjusting to the brave new world that was coming. It is my belief that there will be numerous such opportunities available to us in the near future.
Among the major factors behind such a belief is that housing prices are still declining, housing sales are still falling, layoffs have just started to takeoff and financial institutions are still reluctant to lend…even if people and companies are willing to borrow. Some feel that the real recession is just starting to hit.
Growth-wise, real GDP rose, year-over-year, at a 0.7% rate in the third quarter of 2008, down from 2.8% in the third quarter of 2007 and 2.3% in the fourth quarter of that year. Real GDP declined in the third quarter of 2008 from the second quarter of 2008 and is expected to decline once again going from the third quarter to the fourth quarter.
The extent of this recession has even got some people talking about deflation!
Now that is something! It is something because the year-over-year rate of change in the Implicit Price Deflator of GPD, although it drops when there is a recession, has only become negative once since World War II and that was in the 1948-49 recession. (See chart from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/fredgraph?chart_type=line&s[1][id]=GNPDEF&s[1][transformation]=pc1.) Over the past seven quarters the Implicit GDP Price Deflator has averaged a 2.5% year-over-year rate of increase and increased by 2.6% in the third quarter of 2008 over the third quarter of 2007.
It is important to talk about what is happening to prices at the same time one is talking about what is happening to economic activity because that gives us a clue as to what factors are dominating economic activity. If both prices and output move in the same direction then one can say that demand factors are dominating the market. If prices and output move in opposite directions then one can say that supply factors are dominating the market. To understand what is happening in the economy, one must get some feel for which side of a market is dominating.
As the rate of growth of the economy has dropped from the rate of expansion that took place in the four quarters ending in the third quarter of 2007 (2.8%) to the four quarters ending in the third quarter of 2008 (0.7%), the rate of inflation for the same periods remained roughly constant or has declined modestly. To get such a result the drop in the demand for goods and services would have had to been roughly matched by the decline in the supply of goods and services over this time period. That is, neither side of the market strongly dominated the behavior of the economy over the past year or so.
As I have written in several posts over the past year, supply factors seem to be just as important as, or even more important than, demand factors in the current slowdown. That is, an adjustment is taking place on the supply side of the economy that must be reckoned with if we are to fully understand what is going on in the economy and respond to the situation as effectively as possible.
A possible reason for the shift in supply is that transitions are taking place in the economy or need to take place in the economy and this is impacting cost structures and organizational patterns in a way that is altering how people do business. For example, the increase in the cost of oil during the 2007-2008 period may have caused the transportation and energy industries to begin adjusting to a new world of alternative products and services that rely less on fossil-based resources. The subsequent reduction in the cost of a barrel of oil may have little impact on decisions because of the ‘price shock’ that people absorbed through the summer of 2008. The problems in the automotive industry are just one consequence of this. And, we are seeing a lot more adjustments coming in different segments of the transportation area that are not getting such a high profile. Also, new efforts to build ‘green’ industries may result from this.
Another transition is occurring in the financial industry where thousands of people are being laid off due to the downsizing that has resulted from the collapse of the financial markets. Financial institutions, I believe, are going to go through a substantial restructuring that will be based on information technology. In the past thirty years, the financial industry has shown how it can use the computer to design financial products. Now, along with the call to restructure the regulation of financial institutions, the financial industry is going to have to use the emerging information technology to control risk and enhance the openness and transparency of the industry. In moving in this direction the financial industry will become a real leader in the creation of information markets on which the rest of the economy will model itself.
Information technology continues to transform itself and in so doing will continue to create opportunities for other industries to transform themselves. The spread of information is going to accelerate with search being an integral part of this expansion along with greater and greater connectivity between users throughout the world. Computer networks will more and more become decentralized rather than centralized.
Another area where substantial transitions are taking place is in the area of State and Local governments. The model that has been used in this arena developed after World War II and is in need of a vast overhaul. In all likelihood, the current financial difficulties are going to result in these governments modernizing their function and structure while at the same time they help rebuild the infrastructure.
These are just a few of the major transitions that are taking place in the economy right now and that predominantly affect the supply side of the economy rather than the demand side. In all the efforts to “get the economy going again” we must not restrict or prevent these changes. That is, the government programs that are designed to stimulate the economy must not “lock us into” the old way of doing things. A bailout of the auto industry that keeps things “as they are” will not be helpful in the longer run.
It could be that the economy of the United States, and the world, is now going through a major restructuring, a restructuring that seems to occur every 60-80 years or so. In a sense, we are going from one age into another. One could say that the United States went through another major restructuring in the 1930s when the country was transitioning from an economy based predominantly upon agriculture to one that was based predominantly upon manufacturing. Maybe this is the time of transition from manufacturing to (you insert your term for it). Maybe the world of the ‘manufacturer’, and all that supports it, has significantly passed its peak and government props can no longer sustain it.
Two things can be drawn from this. First, government programs that just rely on stimulating demand will not prove to be very effective. The transitions must take place. They will take place relatively rapidly or they will take place at a much slower pace if the government supports the status quo. We…the government…must be careful here.
Let me state this again…the adjustments are going to take place…whether or not the government slows them down!
Second, these areas of transition are going to create major new opportunities for investment to those that are lucky enough…or wise enough…to choose the right companies. Referring to the 1930s once again, one can reference many investments that provided exceptional returns to those that sought them out and committed to them during the period in which the economy was adjusting to the brave new world that was coming. It is my belief that there will be numerous such opportunities available to us in the near future.
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