Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Interpreting the Recent Behavior of the Monetary Aggregates

All research seems to indicate that, over time and everywhere, inflation is a monetary phenomenon. If this is true then we need to take some account of monetary aggregates in the short run so as to better understand what is taking place and what the current situation implies for the future. Also, it seems as if interest in the monetary aggregates might be surfacing once again. (See my post, http://seekingalpha.com/article/217598-monetary-targets-a-fresh-take.)

Let’s look at the current situation beginning with the quarter that followed the start of the Great Recession, the first quarter of 2008. If one looks at the year-over-year growth rate of the M2 measure of the money stock, things look relatively benign. Growth remained modestly above 6% through the first nine months of
the recession, but rose to over 10% by early 2009. However, this did not signal that monetary policy was working even though the end of the recession has been dated as July 2009. In fact, in looking at all the other monetary measures one could discern some troubling behavior that might indicate a deeper recession and a very slow recovery.

For example, the behavior of this measure certainly did not track the performance of bank reserves or the monetary base. Through the first nine months of 2008, total reserves in the banking system averaged a little under 5%, year-over-year. In the second quarter of 2009, the rate of increase was over 1,800%! The monetary base performed in a similar fashion. For the first nine months of 2008, the monetary base grew around 2.5% year-over-year. This increased to more than 100% in the beginning of 2009.

Of course, we know the reason why these reserve aggregates grew so rapidly while the money stock measure picked up only modestly. Excess reserves in the banking system went from less than $2 billion in the second quarter of 2008 to over $800 billion in the first quarter of 2009. The Federal Reserve was supplying funds to the banking system. However, the banking system was just holding onto them!

There was another movement within the monetary aggregates that was also of interest during this time period. The growth of required reserves, the reserves the banks had to hold behind their deposits, rose throughout 2008 but not nearly at the pace of total reserves or the monetary base. Note, however, that the growth rate of the non-M1 component of M2 remained relatively constant throughout 2008 and 2009 which indicated that a lot must be happening within the M1 measure of the money stock.
Here we see that through the first six months of 2008, the M1 money stock hardly grew at all. However, starting in September 2008 which marked the beginning of the financial crisis, this measure took off and was growing by almost 17% in early 2009. Growth was mainly in the demand deposit component of M1.

Two things were happening here. First, interest rates fell dramatically in 2009; keeping money in interest bearing accounts at banks and thrift institutions did not make much sense. Second, as people lost jobs and the economic environment became more and more uncertain, people and businesses moved assets from less liquid vehicles to transaction balances (demand deposits and other checkable deposits) so as to be able to buy necessities and to pay bills.

It is very important to identify this behavior because it explains a lot about how people were using their wealth at this time and what kinds of pressures they were feeling. This information helps us understand why the economy is performing the way it is and what implications this kind of behavior has for the future.

Taking this analysis into 2010 we see that the growth rate of M2 drops off drastically to less than 2%, yet M1 continued to incease at rates in excess of 5%. This is because people continued to transfer funds from interest-bearing accounts into transaction accounts. This is supported by the information on the growth rate in required reserves which was still above 10%. Note, that because of this the Federal Reserve has needed to continue to supply more reserves into the banking system to handle this increase in required reserves yet maintain the extraordinarly high levels of excess reserves in the banking system, reaching more than $1.0 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2009.

What this indicates to me is that the behavior of people and of the business community has not changed much over the past two and one-half years. People are still scared. Because of the tepid economy, high unemployment, and the uncertainty about the future, economic units still prefer to put their funds into transaction accounts so that they can facilitate their needed expenditures. This kind of information does not give one much confidence.

Furthermore, this kind of behavior is not what is seen before economic recoveries pick up steam. And, with the M2 measure of the money stock growing below 2%, year-over-year, one can only conclude that money is not entering the economy in a way that will stimulate future business expansion. Only when bank loans begin to increase and, consequently, M2 begins to expand more rapidly, then, maybe, confidence in the recovery will grow.

To me, monetary information is very valuable in trying to understand what is happening in the economy and where the economy might be going. However, the analysis of monetary aggregates must not be the kind of “cookie-cutter” analysis done in the 1970s and 1980s. Good analysis of the monetary aggregates is very complex and must include some historical analysis with it.

1 comment:

灏群 said...

不論做什麼事,相信自己,別讓別人的一句話,把你擊倒。..................................................