Is the Dam Starting to Break?

Over the past six months or so, I have commented on the buildup of cash at many of the major banks and manufacturing firms in the United States. My bet has been that at some point in the future, these cash hoards would be used by the large, healthy organizations amassing them to buy up other firms in a period of consolidation that would rival any other in United States history.

The growth of these cash hoards has been subsidized by the Federal Reserve System as it has kept its target interest rate near zero for twenty months and promises to continue to do so for an “extended time.” This has allowed large banks, non-bank companies, and investment funds to engage in the “carry trade”, regain their health and profitability, and build up their cash positions to historic levels. In so doing the Fed has underwritten a bubble in the bond market. (http://seekingalpha.com/article/221151-a-bubble-in-the-bond-market)

Behind this policy stance is the concern of the Federal Reserve for the solvency of large numbers of smaller commercial banks. On May 20, 2010, the FDIC claimed that there were 775 banks on its list of problem banks as of March 31, 2010. (The new list should be out any day.) As of last Friday, the FDIC had seen 110 banks close this year a rate of about 3.5 banks per week. Elizabeth Warren has stated in front of Congress that around 3,000 smaller banks face serious problems in the near future, especially in terms of commercial real estate. (http://seekingalpha.com/article/215958-elizabeth-warren-on-the-troubled-smaller-banks) For the problems of these smaller banks to be worked out in an orderly fashion, the Federal Reserve needs to keep interest very low well into 2011.

The consequence of this policy has been a bifurcation of American finance…and American industry. The bigger and better off companies have profited from the extraordinarily low borrowing costs and the promise that the huge, risk-free spreads that could be earned in the bond market would not go away soon. The smaller and less-well-off companies just held on, hoping that they would survive.

So, the bigger and better off companies built up their cash pools. The banks didn’t use the funds to make loans. The non-financial firms didn’t spend them to invest in new plant and equipment. The investment funds kept the perpetual money machines going. The question was, when would these organizations use these cash pools to begin the consolidation frenzy?

Now the Friday newspapers are full of the “deals” that have taken place this week. BHP has a $40 billion offer on the table for Potash Corporation. Intel is spending almost $8 billion for McAfee. Rank group has put out about $5 billion to acquire Pactiv and Dell has obtained 3PAR for a little over $1 billion.

And, in the banking area, First Niagara has paid $1.5 billion to acquire NewAlliance Bancshares. This latter deal seems to be particularly significant because both financial organizations are healthy. There have been many bank acquisitions over the past several years in which only one of the combining institutions have been healthy, but none where both have been in good shape.

This move by First Niagara is seen as something new in the current environment from both the company side, but also from the regulatory side. Regulators have been so pre-occupied in the past several years with problems in the banking space that little time has been available to give any attention to healthy combinations, if they existed. The announcement of this deal raises the question about whether or not more regulatory time will be given to healthy deals in the near future.

Bottom line: the cash is around in the coffers of many banks and non-financial companies. These organizations do not seem to be intent upon using these funds in a way that will speed up the economic recovery. The strategy seems to be to take part in a substantial consolidation and re-structuring of American finance and industry. The companies I would focus on at this time are those that are profitable, that have a large accumulation of cash, and that have the management team and will to lead this effort. As we saw in the buyout mania that took place in the late 1970s and 1980s, the best performers were the ones that moved first before higher and higher premiums were required to pull off deals. I believe that this will be the case in the present situation. Who said that the world was worried about companies that were “too big to fail”? They ain’t seen nothin’ yet!