Merger Trend Heats Up

For the last 18 months or so, I have believed that one of the most important factors affecting the American (and world) economy would be a growing number of mergers and acquisitions. Individuals at Credit Suisse Group AG estimate that “The value of global takeovers may increase 15 percent to 20 percent this year, extending a 27 percent rebound in 2010.” (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-30/new-deal-rush-pushes-takeovers-to-most-expensive-since-lehman.html) Not only is the economy growing (however modestly) but the better off corporations have lots and lots of cash assets, borrowing costs are exceedingly low, and there are lots of other corporations that are not so well off and whose best outcome is to be acquired by someone larger and healthier. Last week the AT&T and T-Mobile deal was announced. Recently we have also had deals announced by Duke Energy Corporation and Deutsche Boerse AG. And, yesterday, Canada’s Valeant Pharmaceuticals International put out a hostile offer for Cephalon, Inc. General Electric has engaged in a string of acquisitions, the most recent one was just announced, a $3.2 billion deal for GE to acquire the French company Converteam. And, there are many others. Deals are also taking place in the commercial banking industry. Although there were 157 banks closed in 2010, the number of banks in the industry fell by 310 indicating that lots of acquisitions were going on behind the information relating to the regulatory closures taking place. And, the big companies are getting bigger. The prices of an acquisition are rising. In the first quarter of this year, the price of an acquisition reached the highest level since before the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc. There are three aspects of this activity that are important for our future. First, consolidations are taking place across virtually all industries. There are many targets “out there” and companies with lots of cash and lots of borrowing power are “on the prowl.” This activity will have two effects on economic growth. In the short run, consolidations slow down economic growth because they lead to a rationalization of industry where plants and offices are closed and people are let go. Over the longer run, productivity increases as organizations become more efficient and effective producers of goods and services. Second, companies that have built up too much debt are in the process of deleveraging and, at the same time, are spinning off some of the subsidiaries they acquired with the debt. Thus, firms are getting back to more manageable levels of debt in their capital structure and they are also returning their operational focus to their core businesses. Both of these moves will also tend to keep economic growth from speeding up in the near future. The reduction in the debt of these companies will not be replaced in the near future and this will moderate the increase in bank lending and other corporate borrowing. Furthermore, the return of companies to their core businesses tends to result in the closing of plants and offices and the reduction in the number of people these companies employ. Third, investors will have the opportunity to participate in the restructuring of the economy that is now taking place. However, investors must be careful because not all acquiring companies are equal and not all acquisitions will turn out well. The current merger and acquisition boom is still in its early stages. As such, premiums received by selling companies are low, “the lowest since the third quarter of 2007.” Premiums are always low at the start of an M&A boom! Yet, not all deals are attractive to investors. Whereas AT&T stock has climbed 7.6 percent since it disclosed the T-Mobile deal and Valeant Pharmaceuticals stock jumped 15 percent late yesterday on the news of its bid for Cephalon, other transactions have not fared so well. If there is a chance to participate in this investment swing, it is now, when the purchase premiums are low. These will rise, and in the typical cycle, the rise will approach a level in which all new M&A deals are suspect. How soon the rise will occur is, of course, problematic. With so much cash on company balance sheets and the Federal Reserve holding market interest rates so low, one could imagine that the bidding could become pretty hot. But even if the bidding becomes “hot” this will not do much good for the economy in the short run because consolidations and the rationalizing of companies will result in plant and office closings and the laying off of people. It will also result in big companies (and big banks) getting bigger.