“Moody’s Investors Service, the ratings agency, said in a report last week that many states ‘are increasingly pushing down their problems to their local governments.’ The Moody’s report warned that this would be “the toughest year for local governments since the economic downturn began.” (See “States Pass Budget Pain to Cities,” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/24/us/24cities.html?hp.)
“The state budget squeeze is fast becoming a city budget squeeze, as struggling states around the nation plan deep cuts in aid to cities and local governments that will almost certainly result in more service cuts, layoffs and local tax increases.”
Homes, over the last fifty years, served as the piggy-bank for the middle classes and the working classes as the rising price of houses during this time served as the major source for these people to increase their wealth. We are learning more and more that the inflated values of land and commercial real estate and the growing wealth of these classes also served as a piggy-bank for other sectors of the economy, such as state and local governments.
And, this piggy-bank was the source for increasing employment, rising wages, and other benefits in the public sectors of the economy.
Now the piggy-bank is broken and state and local governments are feeling the pain as have home owners, small commercial banks and small businesses over the past three years. (See my post http://seekingalpha.com/article/259867-banking-and-real-estate-the-problems-are-still-there.)
People are learning that those that “live” by inflation, “suffer” by deflation.
Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve are trying as hard as they can to create inflation once again so as to preserve the banking system, the housing market, and, now, state and local governments.
The economy, however, may not be responding as the Fed might want it to.
In a real sense there are two economies. There are the better off, those that benefitted from the credit inflation of the last fifty years, the people that learned how to use inflation and who have the resources to protect themselves against changes in prices. Then there are the others, those who can’t protect themselves from changing prices.
One result of this is that the income distribution in the United States is skewed more toward the wealthy than ever before in the history of the country.
The history: in the early 1960s, there were many intellectuals and policy makers who believed that inflation was beneficial to the worker because a little inflation was not a bad trade off for higher levels of employment. This trade off was captured in something called the Phillips Curve.
Although the Phillips Curve was intellectually contested by the end of the 1960s, the myth of the Phillips Curve lived on in many official circles and some still believe in it to this day.
Yet, the credit inflation that was supposed to be a ‘boon’ to the blue-collar worker and the middle class resulted in a withering of American manufacturing capability in steel, autos, and then other industries. It resulted in substantial amounts of under-employment for working age people. It decimated the housing industry. It has made many of the smaller commercial banks in the United States insolvent. And, it has now bankrupt the American system of local government.
We have had a bailout of the steel industry. We have had two bailouts of the auto industry. Labor unions in the manufacturing industries are so week that union leaders are now training people to go into other countries and build up labor unions there. We have had a bailout of the banking industry. We are now going through a workout and possible bailout of state and local governments.
Labor unions in the public sector, teachers unions, are now acting in much the same way as did the auto unions and the steel unions before them, as the economic base for their benefits have faded away.
People and organizations can only live beyond their means for so long and credit inflation can create the “good days” for only so long. And, when the good days are over, people must return to a more controlled and disciplined life style. The pain of the ‘return’ is not easy to bear.
The efforts by Mr. Bernanke and the Federal Reserve to create another round of credit inflation is, unfortunately, producing a further bifurcation of American society.
While the middle class and the blue collar workers continue to suffer and continue to restructure their budgets and balance sheets, those who have more are taking advantage of the Federal Reserve’s actions to further strengthen their position.
Large commercial banks are bigger than they were when they were “too big to fail” in 2008. Payrolls and bonuses at financial institutions are exceeding earlier years.
Large corporations are sitting on “tons” of cash and possess immense borrowing power at miniscule interest rates. And, we see one large merger taking place here and another large merger taking place there: AT&T and T-Mobile; Deutsche Bőrse and the NYSE Euronext; Warren Buffet and Lubrizol, and Caterpillar and Bucyrus. The projection is for more of this to take place in America...and in the world.
And, the wealthy? Consumer spending is picking up but the strength is not at the lower end of the value chain. Manufacturing is picking up but for higher end goods. Overall, the pickup is just modest because it is not supported throughout the income spectrum.
I raised the question earlier, in such an environment “Will the Financial Industry Dance Alone?” (http://seekingalpha.com/article/255748-will-the-financial-industry-dance-alone) The answer to this question seems to be “No, the financial industry will not dance alone. Big corporations will dance along too as will the wealthy.” There was concern in the 2000s that the benefits of the economic growth at that time were not spread evenly throughout the economy.
My feeling is that you haven’t seen anything yet.
The efforts by the Federal Reserve to inflate the economy are not going to be spread evenly throughout the economy. State and local governments are going to have to re-structure and downsize. The people in these bodies are going to have to lower their expectations as well as the people that have been served by them.
Similar to the situation with the smaller banks, one hopes to get through this adjustment period without major disturbances. That is, government officials and regulators are working overtime to keep a lid on things so that insolvencies and bankruptcies do not overwhelm the system. The efforts to contain these problems seem to be having some success. Ever Meredith Whitney, the financial analyst who predicted massive defaults in the municipal bond area still contends that there will be a large number of defaults although not as many as she first feared.
Still, things are changing and will my guess is that in many areas of the society we will not return to the “plush” years experienced in the last half of the twentieth century.